Tracking polls are treated as any other poll, except that the number of respondents is taken to be the number of interviews conducted per day. So a tracking poll that consists of a rolling three-day sample of voters will be counted as a separate data point each day, but as a data point at voters per day. Does a poll ever become so old that you drop it entirely?
Exception: the highest-rated poll not necessarily the most recent in any given state is guaranteed a minimum weight of 0. For further discussion, please see here. How do you find the polls you include in the analysis? I periodically scan the links you see on the left-hand side of the page. Occasionally, pollsters also e-mail me their results directly. This is very helpful. All scientifically-conducted polls are included provided that they meet our reporting requirements and the internal poll rule see below.
What are the reporting requirements for a poll? At a minimum, the poll must list 1 the percentage of the vote for each major candidate — not simply the margin; 2 the sample size; and 3 the dates that the poll was in the field. Do you list internal polls that are leaked by the campaigns? This site has a ban on listing internal polls.
The logic behind this is that when an interested party conducts a poll, it is only liable to leak its results to the public only if it contains good news for their candidate, thereby encouraging donors, press persons, etc. But it does mean that there may be a bias in which information becomes part of the public record: we learn about a poll that has a candidate ahead by 10 points in a state, but not one where he is down by 2. For this reason, such polls are excluded.
More specifically, a poll is excluded if it was conducted by any current candidate for office, a registered campaign committee, a Political Action Committee, or a group, unless i the poll has a bipartisan partner partisan polling groups will sometimes pair with one another to reduce the perception of bias , or ii the organization has a long and demonstrable track record of releasing all its data to the public.
Polls are not excluded simply because the pollster has conducted work on behalf of Republican or Democratic candidates, provided that the particular poll in question was intended for public consumption.
It will indicate the median date of interviewing for that poll — not when that poll was reported or posted to the site. For example, a poll which conducted interviews on July 1, July 2 and July 3, and was reported to the media on July 5, would be listed with a date of July 2. What if a pollster provides multiple versions of their poll — e. When these situations arise:.
After that, I will use the likely voter version;. What is the purpose of the trendline adjustment? Polling data comes out in different increments in different states. Some states are polled frequently, while others are only polled only occasionally. The trendline adjustment is an effort to correct for this problem by using polling movement in states that have been polled recently to adjust the data in states that have not been.
If a particular state is polled in the midst of a bounced cause by something like the conventions, such pollig may reflect only a temporary, near-term fluctuation rather than the longer-term demographic reality. To take a more concrete example, suppose that Virginia was last polled in the weekend prior to the Democratic convention, and that poll showed John McCain ahead by 2 points.
Suppose also that North Carolina was last polled in the weekend following the Democratic convention, and that poll showed Barack Obama ahead by 4 points. Looking at these two polls might give the impression that North Carolina is a better state for Barack Obama than Virginia. The trendline adjustment attempts to correct for this. How does the trendline adjustment work? In plain English, we look at movement in the polling in recently-polled states and in national polls to predict movement in other states.
For the original methodology behind the trendline adjustment, please see here. For subsequent refinements to the methodology, please see here , here , here and here. Does the trendline adjustment assume that polling movement is uniform between different states? No, it does not. The adjustment attempts to account for which particular demographic groups are responsible for the polling movement, and those groups may produce differing results in different states.
See here and here for discussion. Does the trendline adjustment account for the convention bounce? We will have a special set of procedures in place on and around the time of the conventions to account for the convention bounce, but they have not yet been fully developed. Are the polls weighted for purposes of calculating the trendline adjustment?
More reliable polls have more influence in the computation of the trendline. Step 3. The Regression Estimate. What is the regression estimate? Put differently, it is a way not to be held hostage by the results of individual polls that might defy common sense, particularly where polling data in a state is sparse. Polls are an imperfect measure of voter sentiment, subject to the vagaries of small sample size, poor methodology, and transient blips and trends in the numbers. Since North Dakota and South Dakota are very similar, it is unlikely that there is a true eight-point differential in the polling in these states.
The regression estimate is able to sniff out such discrepancies. For general background on the process of regression analysis, see here. What is the dependent variable in the regression analysis? Technically speaking, there are two regressions that are computed in each state.
The second is a regression on the total committed vote held by either of the major-party candidates. What independent variables are included in the regression estimate?
The regression models evaluate a total of 16 candidate variables. The 16 variables presently considered by the model are as follows: Political. Fundraising Share. The total share of funds raised in that state by each candidate expressed specifically as the percentage of all funds raised that were raised by the Democratic candidate. An adjustment is made to caucus states to account for their higher proclivity to vote for Barack Obama.
In Michigan, the variable is based on the results of exit polling, which indicated who voters would have selected if all candidates were on the ballot. Liberal-Conservative Likert Score. The most liberal state, Massachusetts, has a Likert score of 5. The most conservative, Utah, has a score of 3. Religious Identity 5. The proportion of white evangelical protestants in each state. The proportion of Catholics in each state.
The proportion of LDS voters in each state. Ethnic and Racial Identity 8. The proportion of African-Americans in each state. The number of Latino voters in each state as a proportion of overall voter turnout in , as estimated by the Census Bureau. The reason I use data based on turnout rather than data based on the underlying population of Latinos is because Latino registration and turnout varies significantly from state to state.
It is much higher in New Mexico, for instance, which has many Hispanics who have been in the country for generations, than it is in Nevada, where many Hispanics are new migrants and are not yet registered. See discussion here. Economic The Republican party had come up with the catchphrase to bash Harry Truman after he assumed the office of the presidency after Franklin D.
Roosevelt died in Unlike the presidential race, Truman ultimately ended up winning the run for his second term with an overwhelming electoral votes to Republican challenger Thomas E. Dewey's The reason why the quote is trending now is because the Chicago Daily Tribune had plastered the now-infamous headline "Dewey Defeats Truman. A lot of Trump supporters and individuals concerned with the potential for voter fraud are pointing to the media outlet incorrectly calling the election for Dewey, who lost by what is considered a landslide, as a potential outcome after recounts occur in closely contested states between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Georgia is doing an audit, recount and re-canvas. According to the Associated Press, of this list, North Carolina is the only state that is expected to go for Trump. Trump's victory in Pennsylvania in the election came as a shock to the DNC, despite the fact that it's long been considered a battleground state. I thought, honestly, no one human could get a tweet this wrong.
Literally, everything outside of the FiveThirtyEight tag is incorrect. The number is not the margin in the historical election. The margin Reid is referring to was actually , not And worst of all, the Supreme Court of the United States did not reverse the election.
Some would say a first-round KO by the keyboard. Follow Bobby Burack on Twitter. Do you even care that these kinds of comments or even more hurtful to Joy than reality? This is not technically true. All the measure does is apportion one additional vote in the House between the 50 states based on the existing formula.
It just so happened that, under that formula, Utah got the the short end of the stick and was the next state in line for an additional Congressman anyway. For the th Congress, which will be elected in and whose membership is still determined by the Census, Utah will gain an additional elected member.
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